Edited excerpts from a chat:
Nifty managed to scale fresh 52-week high in the pre-Diwali week. Does the chart indicate steady upside towards 26,000-levels in the festive holiday-shortened week ahead?
Over the past decade, Muhurat trading day has historically been positive for Indian equities. The Nifty50 has closed higher 80% of the time, with an average gain of 0.5%. The Midcap and Smallcap indices have shown even stronger performance, rising 90% of the time, with average gains of 0.7% and 1%, respectively.Interestingly, whenever the week leading up to Muhurat trading has been positive, Nifty50 has delivered an average return of 0.6% during Muhurat trading, and approximately 2% in the following week. This pattern has appeared 7 out of the last 10 years. From a momentum perspective, the 14-day RSI currently stands at 69, indicating strength.
Historically, in 5 out of 6 instances over the past decade where the RSI was above 55 on Muhurat trading day, the Nifty50 posted an average gain of 1.5% in the week after, and around 4% over the subsequent month. Given the current RSI reading and historical trends, if this pattern holds, Nifty50 could potentially move towards the 25900 this week before volatility resurfaces.
What does the Nifty Bank’s trajectory look like for the week ahead? Will the outperformance continue?
Nifty Bank has had a dream run so far with high ongoing momentum projecting a target of 60000. However, the rise so far has already taken the index 3.3% away from its 20 day SMA, raising fears of a mean reversion. This prompts us to expect volatility inside the 57800-58000 region.Any particular strategy that you intend to follow on Muhurat trading day?
Muhurat trading day has historically been a positive event for Indian equities. The Nifty50 has closed higher 80% of the time, delivering an average gain of 0.5%. Broader market indices have performed even better, with the Midcap and Smallcap indices rising 90% of the time, posting average gains of 0.7% and 1%, respectively. Sectoral indices have also shown strength, with over 70% of them ending in the green on Muhurat trading day.
However, historical data also reveals some nuanced post-Muhurat trends. Metal stocks have shown a 60% probability of delivering gains of around 4% in the week following Muhurat and approximately 8.5% over the next month. PSU banks have demonstrated even stronger momentum, with a 65% chance of gaining 9% in the week and 18% in the month after Muhurat. On the other hand, realty stocks have exhibited a 50% probability of declining by 5% in the week following Muhurat. Pharma stocks have tended to underperform, with a 70% chance of falling by around 3% in the week and 4% in the month after Muhurat.
The Midcap index is expected to gain traction both on Muhurat trading days and in the subsequent period. Historically, there has been a 60–70% probability of a 2–5% move in the month following Muhurat.
Given these trends, we expect the midcap index to gain momentum and remain in focus as it is on the verge of a Cup and Handle pattern breakout. Our strategy for short-term traders would be to consider going long on auto and realty stocks on Muhurat trading day, while gradually adding exposure to metals and banking stocks, particularly PSU banks, with a slightly longer-term perspective.
Ather and Ola shares topped the weekly charts in the 500-pack. Do you see more legs to this rally?
Ola has room for upside till at least 60, the upper bollinger band extremity, but the formation of a spinning top on Friday, suggests that a dip could precede the next leg of rise. Towards this end, a downside marker at 54 could be advisable. Ather’s downside marker may be placed near 653, with eyes on 730 as the upside objective in the near term.
The rally has left smallcap investors a little left out. Do you think the smiles will return in the festive week?
Historically, in the week following Muhurat trading, the Nifty Smallcap 100 index has delivered an average return of around 2% in 6 out of the past 10 years.
Although the Nifty small cap index has already gained just over 3% this month, momentum remains weak across the broader smallcap space, with nearly 60% of the constituent stocks showing an average RSI below 50. Furthermore, only about 19% of the stocks have outperformed the index this month, indicating limited participation in the rally.
Based on historical trends during Muhurat trading and the subsequent week over the last decade, the index typically moves around 1% on Muhurat day, and there’s approximately a 70% probability of a 1.5% upside move later in the week, potentially targeting the 18,500 level. A further move towards 19,000 carries a 50% probability, as suggested by past data.
Give us your top trading ideas for the week?
KANSAINER (CMP: 253)
View: Buy
Target: 270
SL: 241
The stock has been consolidating within a narrow range since June and is currently making another attempt to break above the range resistance at 256.
From a technical perspective, the 14-day RSI is around 60 and has crossed above its moving average, indicating strengthening momentum. The stock has been holding above its 50-day and 100-day DSMAs since September, which reinforces the bullish undertone.
On the monthly timeframe, the MACD has crossed above the signal line, suggesting a positive bias and the potential for an upward trend in the near term. Based on these indicators, we expect the stock to move towards 270 in the short term. All long positions may be protected with a stop-loss placed below 241.
RADICO (CMP: 3108)
View: Buy
Target: 3240
SL: 3014
The stock has been in a steady uptrend since 2020, consistently forming higher highs and higher lows.
It has respected its 50 DMA since May 2025, and the recent rebound has gained strength as the stock continues to hold above its 100-day and 200-day SMAs since March indicating sustained bullish momentum.
Technically, the MACD has triggered a bullish crossover on the daily chart, and the stock has broken out of a month-long consolidation range. Additionally, the formation of a bullish Marubozu candle on Friday further supports the potential for continued upside.
We expect the stock to move towards 3240 in the near term. All long positions may be protected with a stop-loss placed below 3014.
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